Mauritius’s power sector has experienced steady growth in demand over the past two decades, prompting continuous expansion of electricity generation capacity. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of electricity production capacity versus consumption in Mauritius from 2005 to 2025, using data from official sources such as Statistics Mauritius, the Central Electricity Board (CEB), and international agencies. Key metrics – including installed generation capacity, actual electricity generation, peak demand, and annual consumption – are examined to elucidate historical trends. The evolution of the energy mix (share of coal, oil, bagasse, hydro, solar, etc.) is discussed to highlight shifts toward renewable energy. Finally, an analytical forecast for 2025–2035 is presented, considering government targets (notably a 60% renewable electricity share by 2030 with coal phased out), planned infrastructure projects, and expected demand growth. The aim is to provide an objective, data-driven overview in technical language accessible to an informed general audience.
Historical Trends (2005–2025)
Over 2005–2023, Mauritius’s electricity system grew significantly to meet rising consumption. Table 1 summarizes key indicators at selected years within this period, while the following subsections discuss major trends in capacity, demand, generation, and energy mix.
Table 1 – Key Electricity Indicators for Mauritius (Selected Years)
| Year | Installed Capacity (MW) | Peak Demand (MW) | Generation (GWh) | Consumption (GWh) | Renewables Share (%) |
| 2005 | 829 | ~353[^1] | 2,145 | 1,941 | 25.3% |
| 2010 | 846 | 404.1 | 2,566 | 2,372 | 25.5% |
| 2015 | 882 | 459.9 | 2,995 | 2,818 | 22.7% |
| 2020 | 950 | 493.8 | 2,883 | 2,740 | 23.9% |
| 2023 | 955 | 508.4 | 3,264 | 3,084 | 17.6% |
Sources: Statistics Mauritius and CEB. Renewables include hydro, bagasse (sugar cane waste), wind, solar, etc. [^1]: Peak demand for 2005 from historical records.
Capacity vs. Peak Demand Growth (2005–2023)
Mauritius has steadily expanded its installed generation capacity in response to growing peak power demand. In 2005, the island had about 829 MW of installed capacityand a peak demand around 353 MW. By 2023, capacity reached roughly 955 MW while peak demand had climbed to about 508 MW. Figure 1 illustrates the trend in total generation capacity (the sum of all power plants, including CEB and independent power producers) versus the annual maximum demand.
Figure 1: Installed electricity generation capacity vs. annual peak demand in Mauritius, 2005–2023. The capacity (supply) has consistently exceeded peak demand (max load), ensuring a reserve margin. Data source: Statistics Mauritius and CEB.
Capacity growth
Installed capacity grew from the mid-2000s through 2020 at an average rate of a few percent per year. Notable capacity additions included new diesel/HFO (heavy fuel oil) generators and co-generation plants at sugar factories (which burn bagasse and coal) in the 2000s. For example, total capacity rose from 782 MW in 2006 to 869 MW in 2014. A significant jump occurred around 2017–2018 when new solar farms and other plants came online, raising capacity to 926 MW (2017) and 968 MW (2018). By 2019, capacity was about 942 MW Capacity additions then plateaued, with 2020–2023 seeing only minor changes (~950–955 MW) as few large plants were built in that period.
Peak demand growth
Peak electricity demand (the highest instantaneous load) has increased with economic and population growth, though not uniformly. Peak load on the main island of Mauritius was ~368 MW in 2007 and reached 378 MW in 2008. By 2015 it was about 460 MW, reflecting rising consumption from new commercial, industrial, and residential developments. The peak crossed 500 MW in 2019, hitting 507.2 MW on the main grid– an 8.3% jump over the previous year’s peak, partly due to a very warm summer and economic expansion. The all-time record before 2025 was 525.7 MW in 2024(Figure 2), surpassed in early 2025 by 545–568 MW during a summer demand spike. Notably, COVID-19 impacts caused anomalous dips: the 2020 peak was 493.8 MW (slightly below 2019) and 2021 fell further to ~471 MW due to suppressed economic activity and demand management. By 2023, peak demand had rebounded to ~508 MW, again exceeding the 2019 level. Overall, from 2005 to 2023 the peak grew by roughly 155 MW (+44%), while installed capacity grew by about 125 MW (+15%).
Reserve margin
Throughout 2005–2023, Mauritius maintained sufficient spare capacity above peak demand, crucial for reliability. For example, in 2015 capacity (882 MW) was nearly double the 460 MW peak. In 2023, the reserve margin tightened somewhat (955 MW vs 508 MW peak), but was still around 88%. This margin is necessary to cover maintenance outages and provide a buffer for unexpected load or generator failures. A significant portion of capacity comes from firm thermal plants (coal and oil units) which provide base-load and dispatchable power, while some capacity (e.g. solar, wind) is intermittent and not fully available at peak times (hence the need for reserve and storage). The historical trend indicates that capacity expansion generally kept ahead of demand – no widespread capacity shortfalls occurred, and load shedding has been rare, thanks to prudent planning.
Generation vs. Consumption Trends (2005–2023)
Electricity generation (production) in Mauritius has risen in tandem with consumption, roughly doubling from the early 1990s and growing ~50% since 2000. Figure 3 shows total annual generation (in GWh) versus total domestic consumption for 2005–2023. Because Mauritius is an island grid with negligible imports/exports of electricity, generation closely matches consumption plus grid losses.
Figure 3: Total electricity generated vs. electricity consumed annually in Mauritius, 2005–2023. Generation exceeds consumption by about 5–10% to account for transmission–distribution losses. Data source: Statistics Mauritius.
Growth in demand
In 2005, Mauritius consumed about 1,941 GWh of electricity. By 2015, consumption had grown to 2,818 GWh, and in 2019 (pre-pandemic) it reached 3,055 GWh. This represents a steady growth rate of ~3–4% per year during the 2000s, driven by increased residential connections (universal electrification at 100% access), commercial development, and new industries. The demand profile is influenced by tourism, manufacturing, and household appliance use – all expanding significantly over the period. The pandemic caused a dip to 2,740 GWh in 2020 (−10% vs 2019) due to economic slowdown. However, demand recovered by 2022–2023, with consumption at 3,084 GWh in 2023– an all-time high, resuming the pre-2020 growth trajectory.
Trends in generation
Total electricity generation paralleled consumption. In 2005, generation was about 2,145 GWh. By 2015 it rose to 2,995 GWh, and by 2019 to 3,237 GWh. The fall in 2020 to 2,883 GWh was followed by new highs in 2022 (3,111 GWh) and 2023 (3,264 GWh). The slight excess of generation over sales corresponds to grid losses, which Mauritius has reduced over time. Losses were around 9.5% in 2005 (204 GWh) but improved to about 6% by 2020through better transmission and distribution efficiency. In recent years, technical and commercial losses have stabilized near 6%, meaning most generated power is delivered to consumers.
Generation sources
Mauritius relies on a mix of CEB power stations and Independent Power Producers (IPPs). The CEB’s own plants (four thermal stations burning heavy fuel oil and diesel, plus several hydro units) produce roughly 40% of power, while private IPPs (mostly sugar industry cogeneration plants burning bagasse and coal) supply about 60%. In 2020, for example, CEB generated ~37% and IPPs 63% of electricity. Total generation must meet not only local consumption but also a small demand in Rodrigues island (which has separate generation of ~40–50 GWh/year). The figures in Table 1 and Figure 2 represent the combined generation for Mauritius and Rodrigues (as reported in national statistics). As of 2021, Rodrigues had a peak of ~8 MW and generation ~15 GWh, the rest being on mainland Mauritius.
Demand peaks vs energy
It’s worth noting that while annual energy consumption grew ~59% from 2005 to 2023 (1.94 to 3.08 TWh), peak power demand grew slightly faster (~44% increase, see previous section). This implies a marginal increase in system load factor (average vs peak usage). The per capita electricity use rose from ~1,580 kWh in 2005 to ~2,446 kWh in 2023 as living standards and appliance usage increased. Yet, demand growth was moderated by improvements in energy efficiency and slower economic growth in some years. Mauritius also implemented efficiency programs (e.g. promoting LED lighting and efficient appliances) which aimed to cut projected demand by a few percentage points. Even with these efforts, the overall trend from 2005–2023 has been steadily rising electricity consumption, necessitating proportional increases in generation.
Evolution of the Energy Mix (Fuel Sources)
Mauritius’s electricity production has historically been dominated by fossil fuels, with a significant contribution from renewable biomass (bagasse) and smaller inputs from hydro and other renewables. The balance among these sources has shifted only modestly between 2005 and 2023, although recent policy shifts aim to dramatically change the mix by 2030. Figure 3 shows the percentage of total generation coming from renewable sources over time.
Figure 4: Renewable energy share of Mauritius’s electricity generation, 2005–2023. “Renewables” include bagasse (sugar cane residue), hydro, wind, solar, and landfill gas. The remainder is mostly coal and fuel oil. The renewable share has fluctuated around 20–25%, with a recent dip due to declining bagasse and rising fossil generation.
In 2005, about 25% of electricity was from renewable sources (primarily bagasse and hydro). The remaining ~75% was from fossil fuels (mainly heavy oil in CEB thermal plants, and coal used by sugar industry IPPs in the off-crop season). By the mid-2010s, the renewable share hovered around 20–23% annually. For instance, 2015 had ~22.7% renewablesand 2019 about 21.7%. The renewable fraction actually declined after 2015 – dropping to only 17.6% in 2023– owing to stagnant or falling bagasse and hydro output and a rising contribution from coal and oil to meet growing demand. Total renewable generation peaked around 2015 at ~681 GWh but fell to ~574 GWh by 2023 even as total generation grew. Several factors explain this trend:
- Bagasse (biomass) – The fibrous sugarcane waste burned by IPPs – has long been Mauritius’s largest renewable energy source, contributing ~15–20% of electricity. For example, in 2021 bagasse provided 11.7% of generation (350 GWh). However, bagasse output depends on annual sugarcane harvests. As the sugar industry contracted in recent years (less cane crushing), bagasse electricity declined (e.g. 384 GWh in 2020 down to 350 GWh in 2021). Bagasse is only available during crop season (about June–November); during the rest of the year those IPP plants switch to imported coal. Thus, bagasse, while renewable, has seasonal limitations. Its overall share dropped slightly over the last decade.
- Hydropower – Mauritius has about 60–70 MW of small hydroelectric plants on rivers and reservoirs. In the 1990s hydro made up ~4–7% of generation, but this share fell as demand grew faster than new hydro could be added. By 2021, hydro was only ~3.0% of generation (107 GWh). Output varies with rainfall; drought years have lower hydro production. No major new hydro capacity was added after the 1980s aside from some micro units, so hydro’s percentage contribution declined from ~6% in 2005 to ~3–4% by 2020.
- Wind and Solar – Starting around 2013, Mauritius introduced wind farms and solar photovoltaic (PV) farms. A 9 MW wind farm (Plaine des Roches) came online in 2016 and several utility-scale PV farms (total ~87 MW_p by 2021) were commissioned. Solar generation grew from essentially zero in 2010 to about 146 GWh by 2020and ~151 GWh in 2021(~5% of generation). Wind contributes a smaller amount (e.g. 15–18 GWh/year around 2020–21). Despite this growth, solar and wind together still supplied under 6% of electricity in 2021. By 2023, solar output expanded marginally (more PV farms and rooftop systems added), but fossil generation grew more, so the overall renewables share remained low.
- Fossil fuels – To cover demand not met by renewables, Mauritius relies on coal and fuel oil. The energy mix in 2021 was about 42% coal, 36.5% fuel oil/diesel, and 21.5% renewables. Coal use expanded in the 2000s via IPP plants; by 2021 coal alone generated 1,255 GWh (42% of total). Heavy fuel oil (HFO) burned at CEB’s Fort George, St. Louis, and other stations contributed ~37% (1,094 GWh combined with smaller diesel units). The dominance of fossil fuels means Mauritius’s electricity emissions are significant (CO₂ emissions grew with consumption, reaching ~0.7–0.8 million tonnes CO₂ from power generation in recent years). However, since bagasse is considered carbon-neutral, its use has partially offset fossil emissions.
In summary, from 2005 to 2023 Mauritius did not substantially increase the renewable share of electricity – it remained roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of the mix for most of the period. In fact, the share dropped below 20% in the early 2020s due to lagging renewable expansion and constraints in bagasse supply, even as consumption grew. This stagnant mix is now at a turning point: the government has set ambitious targets to boost renewables (discussed in the next section).
It is important to note that Mauritius counts bagasse and landfill gas as renewables in its energy statistics alongside wind, solar, and hydro. Bagasse, being a byproduct of sugar, has been the leading renewable source at ~13% of total generation in 2020. Hydro contributed ~3–4%, and newer sources (solar, wind, landfill gas) about 4–5%. Thus, the “modern” renewables (solar/wind) portion was still under 10% as of 2022. This mix is poised to change as investments ramp up in solar farms, battery storage, and possibly wind/wave projects to reach future targets.
Outlook for 2025–2035
Looking ahead, Mauritius is undertaking a transformational shift in its power sector to enhance sustainability and meet future demand. The period 2025–2035 is expected to see major changes in capacity expansion and fuel mix, driven by national policies such as the Renewable Energy Roadmap 2030 and commitments under the Paris Agreement (Mauritius’ nationally determined contributions). Key aspects of the 10-year forecast include aggressive renewable energy integration, the phasing out of coal, deployment of energy storage, and new capacity to ensure reliability as demand grows. This section outlines the official targets and likely developments:
Renewable Energy Targets and Projects to 2030
The Mauritian government has set a clear target: 60% of electricity generation from renewable sources by 2030, with a complete phase-out of coal by 2030. This target, announced in 2021, represents a sharp increase from the ~22% renewable share in 2019–2020. It updates a previous goal of 35% by 2025 (which is unlikely to be met, as 2023 was ~18% renewables) and 40% by 2030. Achieving 60% renewables will require rapid deployment of solar, wind, and other green sources over the next few years:
- Solar PV: Solar energy is expected to be the main contributor to renewable expansion. Mauritius enjoys high solar insolation (~6 kWh/m²/day on average). As of April 2021, the island had ~87 MW_p of large-scale solar farms installed, with an additional ~38 MW_p under construction or commissioning (bringing total committed PV to ~125 MW_p). Several new solar farms (six projects tendered in 2016) have been connected, totaling 66 MW_p capacity. By 2025, utility-scale PV capacity is likely to exceed 150 MW. Beyond that, CEB has solicited proposals for further utility-scale solar plants and is promoting distributed solar: programs like the Home Solar Project aim to equip 10,000 households with rooftop PV panels (1.5–2 kW each). If the 60% by 2030 target is to be met, hundreds of megawatts of new PV will be needed. An indicative figure can be inferred: given projected demand (around 4,000 GWh by 2030, see next subsection), 60% implies ~2,400 GWh from renewables. Assuming half of that from PV with a capacity factor of ~18%, Mauritius would need on the order of 300–400 MW of solar PV operational by 2030 (utility-scale + rooftop). Current plans include numerous solar farm projects with storage, often via public-private partnerships. The trend is toward solar-plus-battery installations to provide dispatchable energy in the evening peak.
- Wind: Wind potential on mainland Mauritius is moderate and site-specific. Only 9 MW is currently operating (at Plaine des Roches, supplying ~2% of demand). A second wind farm of 29 MW was planned but stalled due to legal issues. There is interest in offshore wind – studies by the Mauritius Research and Innovation Council have identified feasible offshore wind sites and even wave energy potential. By 2030, a realistic wind capacity might be in the tens of MW (if the 29 MW project or others are realized). While wind will play a role, it is not expected to contribute more than perhaps 5–10% of generation by 2030 due to the small scale. Any offshore wind would likely come later (post-2030) given long lead times.
- Biomass and Waste-to-Energy: With coal being phased out, the sugar industry IPPs plan to maximize bagasse usage. One major IPP already announced it will operate bagasse-only during crop season and cease coal generation entirely. This means bagasse (and possibly imported biomass like wood pellets) will replace coal in those plants to maintain some year-round output. Additionally, Mauritius has revisited municipal waste-to-energy projects – a 20–24 MW waste incineration plant has been proposed to reduce landfill use. Although previous tenders failed, the project is under review and could come online by late 2020s, potentially contributing a few percentage points to the renewable mix (while also addressing solid waste disposal). Landfill gas capture at the Mare Chicose landfill already generates a small amount (~20 GWh/year) and could be expanded.
- Energy Storage and Grid Upgrades: To accommodate intermittent solar/wind, Mauritius is investing in battery energy storage systems (BESS) and smarter grid infrastructure. In 2023, a first large grid-scale battery (14–20 MW) was commissioned at Amaury. This 20 MW BESS helps stabilize frequency and shift solar energy to the evening peak. The CEB’s roadmap calls for up to 185 MW of battery storage to be installed to reach the 60% RE goal. By 2030, the grid will likely have multiple storage installations and a modernized dispatch system (a “smart grid”) to manage distributed solar inputs. Pumped hydro storage is also conceptually possible in Mauritius’s interior, though no project has been confirmed. These investments ensure that the surge in renewables does not compromise grid reliability.
- Phasing Out Coal: Coal-fired generation, which supplied ~41% of power in 2021, will be eliminated by 2030 per government policy. This is a bold move as it necessitates replacing coal’s contribution (~1.2–1.3 TWh/year) with other sources. In practice, the coal phase-out means sugar mill power plants must either convert to 100% biomass or operate only seasonally on bagasse. Some coal capacity might be replaced by natural gas in the short term (see below). The end of coal also hinges on securing firm power for the non-crop season – this is where storage, flexible generation, or gas turbines could fill the gap. The environmental benefit will be significant: Mauritius’s power sector CO₂ emissions would drop drastically (coal is the highest-emission fuel). It will also reduce exposure to volatile coal import prices (an IPP had halted coal operations in 2022 due to high costs).
In summary, by 2030 Mauritius envisions having a highly diversified generation portfolio: solar PV farms scattered around the island, small and medium wind projects, maximal use of bagasse and possibly imported biomass in former coal plants, one or more waste-to-energy plants, and extensive battery storage to smooth the variability. Achieving 60% renewables in just 5 years (2025 to 2030) is extremely ambitious – it will require timely execution of all planned projects and likely additional initiatives (such as incentivizing rooftop solar + home batteries, corporate PPAs for solar/wind, etc.). The government appears committed: it has allocated funding and launched tenders to accelerate this transition. International partnerships (with India, IRENA, UNDP, etc.) are also supporting these renewable projects.
Projected Demand Growth and Capacity Needs
On the demand side, electricity consumption is expected to continue rising, though possibly at a slightly slower rate than in previous decades due to efficiency improvements and saturation effects. The CEB forecasts peak demand to grow about 2.5–3% annually in the second half of the 2020s. Under an “optimistic scenario” (high economic growth), peak demand could reach ~641 MW by 2030. This aligns with independent estimates; for instance, Bloomberg forecasted ~533 MW by 2020 (actual was ~494 MW due to COVID) and continued growth thereafter. Assuming roughly 2.5% annual growth from ~526 MW in 2024, peak demand by 2035 could be on the order of 700–750 MW. Total annual consumption would similarly rise – from ~3.1 TWh in 2023 to an estimated 4.0 TWh by 2030, and possibly 4.5–5.0 TWh by 2035 (depending on economic trajectory). Key factors influencing demand include:
- Economic growth and electrification: Mauritius aims to grow its high-value manufacturing, services, and possibly introduce more electric transportation. Greater adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) could start noticeably increasing electricity use toward 2035, though EV penetration is still low today. The government is encouraging EV uptake (e.g. allowing EV owners to install solar panels and feed surplus to the grid), which by 2030s could add new loads (offset somewhat by PV charging). Additionally, growth in air conditioning use with rising living standards and climate change will increase peak demand, especially on hot summer evenings.
- Energy efficiency: The Long-Term Energy Strategy includes a 10% improvement in energy efficiency by 2030. If efficiency measures are successful (e.g. better building insulation, efficient motors in industry), they can dampen demand growth. For instance, replacing old appliances and reducing transmission losses can allow more consumption without equivalent generation increase. Mauritius’s energy intensity has been gradually improving, with energy use per unit GDP flattening. Nonetheless, efficiency alone will not stop growth; it only slows it.
- Rodrigues and outer islands: The smaller island of Rodrigues (population ~40,000) may increase its demand as it develops, but it’s relatively minor (<2% of national consumption). There are plans for more renewables in Rodrigues (wind, solar farms) which could make it self-sufficient and even 100% renewable at times. This won’t significantly affect the main grid but contributes to overall renewable goals.
To meet the projected 2030 peak (~640 MW) with adequate reserve, and the eventual ~700+ MW peak by 2035, Mauritius must expand its firm generation capacity. Even after deploying hundreds of MW of renewables, some new dispatchable capacity will be needed for night-time and backup:
- Battery storage and Demand Response: As noted, around 180+ MW of BESS is planned by 2030. This effectively acts as peaking capacity, able to deliver power during peak hours (for a limited duration). In combination with solar, batteries can reduce the need for new fossil peak plants. Additionally, demand-side management (such as incentivizing consumers to reduce load during peak via time-of-use tariffs or direct load control) can cut the peak. CEB has even considered measures like real-time TV displays of the island’s peak demand to encourage conservation at critical times. If even a 5% peak reduction is achieved through smart management, that’s ~30–35 MW less capacity needed by 2030.
- Gas-fired generation (LNG): As a transitional measure to replace coal and support the grid, Mauritius is exploring liquefied natural gas (LNG). In 2022, CEB invited proposals for a floating LNG power barge of about 80–100 MW with a floating storage and regasification unit. This barge would likely host gas turbines or engines to produce power and could be hired on a temporary basis. The advantage is fast deployment and cleaner combustion (50% less CO₂ than coal per kWh, and less local pollution). If this LNG project proceeds, it could be in operation by the late 2020s, ensuring grid stability as coal plants wind down. In the longer term, Mauritius has studied building a permanent LNG import terminal and gas plant (300,000 tons/year import capacity). By 2035, there might be a medium-sized gas power station on the island, providing perhaps 100–200 MW of reliable capacity to complement renewables. However, this depends on global LNG market conditions and the country’s climate commitments (gas, while cleaner than coal, is still a fossil fuel and emits CO₂).
- Upgrading existing plants: Some of the current diesel/HFO generators are aging (e.g. the St. Louis plant units). The CEB will need to either retrofit these for efficiency or replace them. One possibility is converting diesel units to dual-fuel (diesel/LNG) or adding new efficient reciprocating engines that can ramp quickly. Any such replacements would be sized to maintain reliability margins, likely in the range of tens of MW. By 2035, we can expect that older units from the 1980s/90s are decommissioned, replaced by either renewable/storage combinations or cleaner thermal tech (like gas engines).
In quantitative terms, total installed capacity in Mauritius might rise from ~955 MW in 2023 to around 1,100–1,200 MW by 2030, and perhaps 1,300–1,400 MW by 2035. Most of the increase will be in renewables (which have lower capacity factors), hence the need for a higher nameplate capacity to meet the same demand. For example, reaching ~60% renewables by 2030 could entail on the order of 600–700 MW of renewables (solar/wind) installed, plus ~100 MW of waste/biomass, ~180 MW of batteries, and ~100 MW of firm thermal (LNG or oil) for balancing. By 2035, if renewables push beyond 60%, capacity could further skew toward 800+ MW of renewables and perhaps additional storage. These figures ensure that even on cloudy windless days, Mauritius can supply the ~700 MW peak (using stored energy and backup generation), and on sunny windy days, it can shut down most fossil plants.
Projected Energy Mix in 2030–2035
If Mauritius meets its targets, the electricity mix by 2030 will be dramatically different from the 2020 mix. Instead of ~76% fossil / 24% renewable, it would be 40% fossil / 60% renewable. Fossil generation would come exclusively from oil (and possibly gas) as coal is eliminated. Renewables would be a blend of bagasse, solar, wind, hydro, and others. Key characteristics of the projected 2030 mix:
- Coal: 0%. Coal-fired generation (over 1,000 GWh/year in recent past) will be zeroed out. This represents the most significant change. A challenge will be replacing the stability coal plants provided – their void is filled by a combination of biomass (bagasse) and gas or oil generation plus storage.
- Fuel Oil/Diesel: This may drop from ~37% in 2020 to perhaps ~20–30% by 2030 (depending on how much gas or other replacement comes in). Some oil-fired units will remain for load following and peak supply. Ideally, oil use will also decline by 2035 as more renewables come in. The government has also stated a goal of 40% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, which implies cutting oil-based generation as well, not just coal. Therefore, post-2030 we might see efforts to displace fuel oil with biofuels or further renewables, aiming for an even greener mix.
- Bagasse & Biomass: Bagasse will continue to play a role around the ~10–15% level in the mix, assuming the sugar industry stabilizes. If coal is gone, those IPP plants might import biomass fuels for the off-season. For example, pelletized biomass or coconut husk could be imported to co-fire outside the crop season, keeping those plants running year-round on renewable fuel. This could maintain or even increase the renewable contribution from bagasse/biomass beyond what bagasse alone could do. By 2035, if biomass supply chains are established, these plants could be key base-load renewable generators.
- Solar & Wind: By 2030, solar PV could contribute on the order of 20–30% of annual generation (up from ~5% in 2021). Wind might contribute 5% or so. So combined “new renewables” might be ~25–35% of electricity by 2030. By 2035, if even more capacity is added (for instance, offshore wind farms or a second wave of PV projects on rooftops, etc.), this could rise further. It’s plausible that by 2035 Mauritius could reach ~70–75% renewable electricity in an optimistic case. However, to remain factual: no official target beyond 2030 is set yet. It will depend on technology costs and the success of meeting 2030 goals. After achieving 60%, the next steps might include striving for ~80% renewables by 2035 and nearing 100% by 2040–2045 (consistent with longer-term decarbonization).
- Hydro: Will remain roughly 2–3% unless new schemes (like retrofitting reservoirs or adding pumped storage) are implemented. There is limited scope for large new hydro due to geographical constraints.
- Battery Storage: While not an energy source, storage will be an integral part of the 2030–35 grid. During daytime, excess solar will charge batteries, and during evening peaks, batteries will discharge. In effect, a significant portion of evening peak energy will be coming from solar energy stored a few hours prior. By 2035, with sufficient storage, Mauritius can shave peaks and possibly avoid using fossil generators except as emergency backup. We might see a scenario where midday demand is largely met by solar, evening demand by stored solar + wind + some dispatchable biomass/gas, and overnight by a mix of wind, residual oil/gas, and stored energy.
To illustrate the 2035 possible mix, consider a scenario: annual generation ~4500 GWh, of which ~70% (~3150 GWh) is renewable. That could consist of ~1500 GWh solar (e.g. 400 MW PV), ~200 GWh wind (50 MW wind), ~500 GWh bagasse/biomass, ~100 GWh hydro, ~100 GWh waste-to-energy, and the rest (~750 GWh) from fossil fuel (oil/gas) mainly used at night or as backup. This scenario would have essentially decarbonized the grid by about 70–80%, well on track to Mauritius’s longer-term vision of a low-carbon economy.
Uncertainties and initiatives: Reaching these projections will require overcoming practical challenges. Financing and timely execution of projects is critical – delays in planned solar farms or storage deployment could slow progress. Policy incentives will need to remain stable to attract private investment in renewables. Another area is regional integration: Mauritius has explored interconnection with its neighbor La Réunion (e.g., via undersea cable) to trade power, but nothing concrete yet – if eventually pursued, it could help balance renewable fluctuations. For now, Mauritius will rely on self-sufficiency. There is also ongoing research on wave and ocean energy which, if breakthroughs occur, could become part of the mix beyond 2030. Wave energy experiments by an Australian firm are ongoing, and although not expected to contribute by 2030, they signal Mauritius’s interest in diverse renewable options.
Finally, the human and institutional aspect: CEB’s capacity planning and grid management are being upgraded to handle this new paradigm of distributed generation. Training and capacity building will ensure the workforce can operate and maintain solar farms, batteries, and sophisticated grid control systems. Through international cooperation, Mauritius is acquiring the technical support needed for this transition (e.g., the UNDP and World Bank are assisting via grants and expertise for renewable integration).
Conclusion
Mauritius’s electricity sector from 2005 to 2025 has been marked by reliable growth: generation capacity expanded moderately and kept pace with rising consumption, ensuring the lights stayed on for a growing economy. Peak demand rose from the mid-300 MW range in 2005 to over 500 MW by 2023, and annual consumption increased roughly 60% over that period. The energy mix remained heavily reliant on fossil fuels (about 75–80% of generation), with renewables (mainly bagasse and hydro) contributing around 20–25% for most of the past two decades. Efforts to incorporate new renewables (solar, wind) began in the 2010s but did not yet significantly raise the overall renewable share by 2025.
However, looking ahead, Mauritius is at the cusp of a major energy transition. The government’s targets and plans envision a much greener grid by 2030 – specifically, 60% renewable generation and no coal use. This will be achieved through rapid deployment of solar farms, wind projects, waste-to-energy, and extensive use of energy storage and smart grid management, as well as maximizing use of local biomass resources. At the same time, Mauritius must satisfy growing demand and maintain grid stability. The forecast through 2035 suggests that peak demand could reach ~700 MW and consumption ~4.5 TWh, numbers that require careful capacity planning. The CEB’s strategies – potentially including an LNG-to-power project for flexible generation– illustrate how Mauritius intends to bridge reliability with sustainability.
In summary, Mauritius’s electricity capacity has historically exceeded consumption needs with a safe margin, and the challenge now is not quantity but quality of generation – shifting the production fuel mix from fossil-dominated to renewable-heavy while meeting future growth. If current plans materialize, by 2035 Mauritius will have a cleaner, more self-sufficient and resilient power system. Renewables like sun, wind, and bagasse that have always been part of the energy landscape (bagasse since the 1950s, hydro even earlier) will finally dominate the mix, reducing emissions and enhancing energy security. This comparative analysis shows where Mauritius started in 2005, how far it has come by 2025, and the ambitious road it has charted toward 2035. Progress will depend on sustained policy support and investment, but the trajectory is clear: a move toward a greener grid that aligns with global sustainable development goals, while reliably powering Mauritius’s future growth.
