Defining Success and Building Metrics to Track the Energy Transition in a Small Island, Service‑Based Economy
BnA IQ- Research
Mauritius has entered a decisive decade in its energy and climate journey. The country has pledged ambitious targets—cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 40% relative to business-as-usual and achieving 60% renewable electricity with a complete coal phase-out by 2035. Yet progress has been noticeably uneven. Despite strong political signals and extensive policy commitments, the share of renewables in electricity generation declined from 23.9% in 2020 to 17.6–19.2% between 2022 and 2023, with only a marginal recovery to 18% in 2024, according to the most recent national communications and NDC 3.0 . At the same time, over 80% of electricity still comes from fossil fuels, leaving Mauritius deeply exposed to price volatility, external supply shocks and foreign-exchange pressures.
This Bramston IQ research report responds to a critical gap: while Mauritius has clear ambitions, it lacks a unified, operational framework to define what a “successful” energy transition actually looks like—and how progress should be measured. Existing international indices (such as the WEF Energy Transition Index and the World Energy Trilemma) indicate relatively strong performance on environmental sustainability and energy equity, but persistent weaknesses in energy security, supply diversity and system resilience. These broad assessments, however, are too high-level to guide real-time policy, regulatory decisions or capital allocation within a small, service-based island economy.
To address this, the report proposes a Mauritius Energy Transition Success Framework built on six dimensions that reflect the country’s unique vulnerabilities and priorities:
- Decarbonisation & Climate Alignment – Tracking renewable penetration, emissions, energy intensity and the pace of coal phase-out.
- Energy Security & Resilience – Measuring fossil fuel import dependence, generation mix diversity, reliability and climate-proofing.
- Affordability, Competitiveness & Fiscal Sustainability – Ensuring stable tariffs, reducing energy poverty risks and managing IPP and subsidy-related fiscal exposure.
- Inclusion & Just Transition – Monitoring employment shifts, gender balance, regional equity and the socio-economic distribution of benefits and costs.
- Governance, Institutions & Transparency – Strengthening data systems, regulatory predictability, policy coherence and open public reporting.
- Innovation, Flexibility & Digitalisation – Capturing progress on storage, smart meters, digital grid management, pilot technologies and system agility.
These dimensions are translated into a concise set of outcome indicators, aligned with national targets and international reporting structures (BTR1 and NDC 3.0), and a suite of leading indicators that provide early signals of progress—such as MW of solar reaching financial close, storage commissionings, permitting timelines and the rollout of smart metering. Derived from national data sources, global benchmarks and UNFCCC transparency requirements, the framework is designed to be practical, consistent and reproducible by Mauritian institutions.
A central feature of the report is the proposed Mauritius Energy Transition Scorecard: a streamlined, 12–15-indicator dashboard to be adopted by Government, CEB, URA, MARENA and the Energy Observatory, and published annually. This tool enables Cabinet, regulators and investors to track direction-of-travel, identify bottlenecks, assess fiscal risks and evaluate alignment with the NDC pathway. Composite index scores for each dimension (Decarbonisation, Security, Affordability, Inclusion, Governance and Innovation) show a clear baseline picture—strong inclusion and affordability, moderate governance and security, and comparatively weak decarbonisation and innovation—while offering transparent targets for 2035.
The report underscores that data and transparency are now strategic assets. Strengthening the Energy Observatory, accelerating GHG inventory reform, expanding smart-grid systems, integrating socio-economic data and adopting open-data practices will reduce uncertainty, lower cost of capital and improve the bankability of renewable investments. This is particularly vital given Mauritius’s tight fiscal space, high public debt, and the growing reliance on multilateral climate finance.
Five high-level recommendations emerge:
- Establish the Energy Transition Scorecard and table it annually in Parliament.
- Set clear interim milestones for 2027 and 2030, aligned with NDC 3.0.
- Embed transition metrics into fiscal planning, debt sustainability and public investment strategy.
- Reform grid planning, procurement and IPP governance to improve reliability, affordability and investor confidence.
- Prioritise digital and data-system capacity, treating them as core infrastructure for a credible transition.
Ultimately, this report positions Mauritius’ energy transition as more than a technological shift. It is a strategic transformation that touches national sovereignty, macro-economic resilience, social equity and long-term competitiveness. By grounding decisions in transparent, measurable metrics, Mauritius can turn climate ambition into a credible pathway—one that safeguards households, strengthens economic stability, and unlocks sustainable growth.
