Namibia has earned credibility through fiscal discipline, a hard exchange-rate anchor, and regulatory caution. Yet the same posture now risks suppressing strategic experimentation—precisely as climate stress, energy dependence, and commodity substitution intensify. The next decade will reward states that can govern uncertainty, not merely avoid it.
South Sudan became sovereign quickly, but a state is built slowly: through payroll control, cash management, reporting, procurement, and enforceable rules. Without administrative gravity, political milestones become theatre rather than consolidation.
South Sudan’s oil revenues arrived before treasury discipline. The result was not simply volatility, but a shadow fiscal state: earmarks, off-budget schemes, arrears, and oil-backed advances that weakened the budget as an instrument of order. A different sequencing—cash control first, monetisation later—remains possible.
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