Namibia’s new oil, gas and green hydrogen frontier is real—but discovery is not development. Without early fiscal rules, contract discipline, and institutions that can spend well, Namibia risks exporting value while importing volatility.
South Sudan demonstrates a hard constraint often ignored in fintech optimism: banking is a system of enforceable promises. Where authority cannot reliably reach transactions, formal finance narrows into cash and FX intermediation, and compliance becomes performative.
South Sudan’s peace agreements created political containers but not a working state. The binding constraint has been administrative: payroll, cash control, revenue transparency, and basic service delivery. Mediation stopped escalation; it did not install governability.
Congo‑Brazzaville’s defining feature is not volatility but stasis: political continuity has stabilised the state while limiting institutional depth and economic transformation. With oil dominance, persistent execution gaps, and debt management fragilities, stability risks becoming an end in itself. This note outlines why the country lacks a development trajectory—and what DFIs and sovereign partners should prioritise.
South Sudan became sovereign quickly, but a state is built slowly: through payroll control, cash management, reporting, procurement, and enforceable rules. Without administrative gravity, political milestones become theatre rather than consolidation.
South Sudan’s oil revenues arrived before treasury discipline. The result was not simply volatility, but a shadow fiscal state: earmarks, off-budget schemes, arrears, and oil-backed advances that weakened the budget as an instrument of order. A different sequencing—cash control first, monetisation later—remains possible.
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