From Sensing to Strategy a C4ISR–DMDU Framework for Energy and Water Security in Mauritius

Mauritius has long been recognised as a success story amongst small island developing States, combining political stability with relatively high incomes and diversified services exports. However, its structural dependence on imported fossil fuels, limited freshwater resources, ageing network infrastructure and fast evolving climate risks are exposing the country to a new class of complex, interacting shocks. The IMF estimates that Mauritius already spends around 2 per cent of GDP per year on climate related investments, with adaptation accounting for roughly 1.6 per cent of GDP, yet a further financing gap of about 1.6 per cent of GDP must be closed to meet 2030 climate objectives.(IMF)
On the energy side, Mauritius imports approximately 85 per cent of its total energy use, one of the highest import dependencies in the world, leaving it highly exposed to global fuel price volatility and supply disruptions.(Maxinomics) In 2022, about 80.8 per cent of electricity generation was derived from non renewable sources, mainly fuel oil and coal, while renewables (bagasse, solar, hydro, landfill gas and wind) accounted for roughly 19.2 per cent.(SACREEE) Government policy, as articulated in the Renewable Energy Roadmap 2030 and updated NDC submissions, aims to phase out coal and reach 60 per cent renewable electricity, though the target date has recently shifted from 2030 towards 2035, reflecting implementation constraints.(SDG Knowledge Hub)
In water, Mauritius is already classified as water stressed, with renewable water availability per capita estimated at around 1,083 m³ per year in 2013, and projected to fall below the 1,000 m³ per year water scarcity threshold.(World Bank) Climate change has contributed to longer dry seasons, shorter and more intense wet seasons, and more severe droughts, with over 20 per cent of the population experiencing recurrent intermittent water supply in dry years.(World Bank) At the same time, Non Revenue Water (NRW) remains high: the Ministry of Energy and Public Utilities’ Annual Report 2022–2023 reports NRW at around 61 per cent against a target of 55 per cent, reflecting physical losses, metering issues and ageing pipes.
These challenges are occurring under conditions of deep uncertainty. Future rainfall patterns, cyclone frequency, global fuel prices, technology costs for renewables and storage, the pace of electrification (including transport), and the trajectory of tourism and services exports all remain uncertain in both magnitude and direction. Conventional deterministic planning—anchored on a “most likely” scenario—is increasingly ill suited to these conditions. Decision makers need tools that help them to cope with multiple plausible futures, contested assumptions and rapid feedback.
This report proposes an integrated approach that combines:

• C4ISR principles
  Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance—as a civilian “nervous system” for sensing, data fusion and coordinated operational response across the energy and water sectors;(Northrop Grumman)
• Decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU)
  Methods—such as Robust Decision Making (RDM), Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) and related techniques—to test strategies across thousands of plausible futures and to design adaptive pathways rather than static masterplans.

Together, these elements form a C4ISR–DMDU framework that can support Mauritian authorities to identify low regret investments in energy and water infrastructure and governance—investments that produce value across a wide range of future conditions and can be scaled or adjusted as new information arrives.

Key findings

First, the analysis underscores the degree of structural exposure in Mauritius’ current energy and water systems. High import dependence, a still modest share of renewables in electricity, water scarcity thresholds being approached, and high NRW all mean that relatively small changes in external conditions (fuel prices, rainfall, cyclone intensity) can translate into large swings in fiscal, economic and social outcomes.(SACREEE)

Second, Mauritius already possesses many of the institutional building blocks for a more integrated, data driven approach: a dedicated Ministry of Energy and Public Utilities; statutory bodies such as CEB, CWA and the URA; strategic documents including the Renewable Energy Roadmap 2030, the Master Plan for Water Resources (2012–2050) and a National Integrated Water Resources Management Plan. However, these instruments were largely developed using traditional planning methods and are not yet fully supported by real time data architectures or DMDU style exploratory analysis.

Third, adapting C4ISR concepts to a civilian context implies a multi layered architecture:

• a sensing and data layer (smart meters, SCADA, remote sensing, hydrological gauges, grid monitoring);
• a communications layer (secure fibre and wireless networks across utilities and agencies);
• a computing and analytics layer (modelling, forecasting, exploratory scenario generation); and
• a command layer (joint sector operations centres and clear decision rights for activating contingency plans).

Fourth, DMDU approaches provide a structured way to use this “nervous system” to design robust portfolios rather than single “optimal” plans. International applications, especially in water planning, show that Robust Decision Making and DAPP can identify strategies that meet reliability and cost targets across widely varying climate projections, with adaptive “signposts” that trigger further investments when thresholds are crossed.

Priority low regret investments

Within this C4ISR–DMDU framework, the report identifies a set of low regret investment classes for Mauritius:

• Digital infrastructure and data governance across energy and water (advanced metering for large users, district metering for NRW management, enhanced SCADA, data lakes and shared data standards under the URA’s oversight). These investments enable both operational efficiency and the analytical backbone required for DMDU.
• Network efficiency and resilience: accelerated programmes to reduce NRW from around 61 per cent, targeted pipe replacement in high loss zones, selective undergrounding or strengthening of key electricity distribution corridors serving critical services (hospitals, airports, ports and major pumping stations).
• Distributed renewable energy plus storage, prioritising public buildings, water treatment plants and pumping stations. This combination reduces fuel import bills, improves resilience during cyclone related outages and provides flexible capacity for the grid under high uncertainty about demand growth and technology costs.(SACREEE)
• Demand side management and energy efficiency, guided by the existing Energy Efficiency / Demand Side Management Master Plan and extended to water demand management. These actions consistently show positive net present value across a wide range of plausible futures in international DMDU applications.
• Non conventional water resources and reuse, particularly tertiary treated wastewater for irrigation in tourism zones and high value agriculture, reducing pressure on potable supplies. This is already envisaged in the Ministry’s strategic directions and can be tested under drought scenarios using DMDU tools.

Governance and finance implications

The report recommends the establishment of a National Energy and Water Resilience Cell, anchored in the Ministry of Energy and Public Utilities but with formal participation from the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development; the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre; CEB; CWA; URA; and the national climate change coordination mechanism. This Cell would act as the “command” hub in the C4ISR sense, owning the joint situational awareness platforms and commissioning DMDU analyses.

Financing the necessary transition requires combining domestic resources with international climate and development finance. The IMF and World Bank have both highlighted that climate resilience investments in countries such as Mauritius are macro critical and can justify concessional financing and guarantees.(IMF) At the same time, adaptation finance still accounts for only around 36 per cent of total climate finance globally, implying intense competition for funds.(Global Center on Adaptation) A coherent C4ISR–DMDU framework, embedded in national planning and backed by credible data, can make Mauritian projects more bankable and attractive to external financiers.

A note on urgency

As UN Water has emphasised, “Water is at the core of sustainable development and is critical for socio economic development, healthy ecosystems and for human survival.”(United Nations) For small islands, this is inseparable from climate justice: “The people of the small island developing states are on the frontlines of climate change.”(The United Nations in the Caribbean) Mauritius has already begun to act, but the scale and complexity of future shocks demand a more integrated, anticipatory approach to infrastructure strategy.

The C4ISR–DMDU framework proposed here is not a technology shopping list. It is a governance and decision making upgrade: a way to use sensing, data and analytics to ask better questions and to make choices that remain defensible, even when the future does not behave as expected.